Irene will grow in size and intensity, and even if the center tracks 100+ miles offshore, the storm may be large enough and powerful enough to do damage on Florida's east coast, especially in northern Florida near Jacksonville. The NAM model still predicts a direct hit near Miami late Thursday night or Friday morning. South Florida may be breathing slightly easier today with the eastward shift of the model consensus, but Florida is not out of the woods yet for several reasons. If Irene encounters favorable (low) wind shear over the super warm Gulf Stream current off the Florida Coast, she may get a "super charged" shot of energy and undergo rapid intensification Thursday. Keep in mind that hurricane track forecasts are generally more accurate and reliable than hurricane intensity forecasts. Irene could reach Category 3, or possible Category 4 intensity by then. The GFS model, (which appears to have successfully predicted the notion of development and approximate location of Irene somewhere off the Florida coast 10 days in advance!) drops Irene's central pressure to 945 millibars, which would make Irene a borderline Category 4 Hurricane!ġ20H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH.INLANDĮither way, all indications are that Irene is going to be a nasty major hurricane by Thursday. Official NHC intensity forecast surges Irene to 115 mph by Thursday, a major Category 3 storm. IN FACT.BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB.RESPECTIVELY."
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. "ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Irene's probable track over warm open waters and the super warm Gulf Stream current look favorable for turning Irene into a large, well organized major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane in the next 72 hours. This may also increase the chances of a direct hit on the Carolinas, and more time over open ocean and a warm Gulf Stream may cause Irene to intensify and explode into a major hurricane. This may be good news for south Florida, if Irene is able to track further offshore. The latest model packages have shown a general trend to shift the track slightly east. Keep in mind that the 5 year average error for hurricane track forecasts is about 200 miles 4 days out.
The "official" NHC track takes Irene toward the South Carolina coast Saturday as a major hurricane.Īfter 48 hours larger differences in tracks emerge, but the consensus is that Irene will recurve northward and may either make landfall in the USA or parallel the coast for a while. (Click to enalrge for easily readable images)Īll the various computer model tracks agree on two things during the next 48 hours.Ģ) Irene is going track over mostly warm, open waters and grow stronger. Visible satellite image shows Irene growing north of Hispaniola. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.988 MB.29.18 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT.WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.20 KM/H SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST.2100 UTC.INFORMATIONĪBOUT 215 MI.340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLANDĪBOUT 65 MI.100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS.FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
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